Bitcoin cycle bottom may already be in at $58K, says analyst James Check
Onchain analyst James Check says Bitcoin may have bottomed near $58,000 after two capitulations and warns against anchoring to an October low.
Onchain analyst James Check says Bitcoin may have bottomed near $58,000 after two capitulations and warns against anchoring to an October low.
James Check, founder and lead analyst at Checkonchain, said Bitcoin may have already established its cycle bottom after undergoing two capitulation events, arguing that shifts in holder behavior indicate the market has absorbed much of its selling pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record of just over $126,000 in October 2025 and traded around $77,400 at the time of writing, nearly 39% below its peak. Some traders expect BTC to establish another low in October 2026 based on its historical four-year cycle. In July, analyst Benjamin Cowen said that cycle-duration data and the US midterm-election calendar pointed toward a fourth-quarter bottoming window.
“Ask, ‘Well, now what do I do?’ long before your compass breaks,” Check told Cointelegraph. “It’s like a broken clock. It’s right twice a day. Just assume it’s broken and find something better.”