Bitcoin just topped a key long-term moving average. Here's what it might mean
Bitcoin’s return above its one-year average excited chart watchers. AltcoinPro Research says the more important signal is whether it can stay above its 200-day average.
On Sept. 22, bitcoin rose above its 365-day average near $80,900 for the first time in 310 days, Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, founders of Altcoin Pro, said in an email conversation.
Altcoin Pro found that bitcoin was higher 12 months later in each of the five previous instances in which it regained its 365-day average after spending at least 90 days below it. The gains ranged from about 59% to more than 1,400%, though the largest increase came in 2012, when bitcoin was a fringe asset.
Horst said the pattern is not fail-safe. When the firm included shorter periods below the line, it found two failed breakouts, in July 2018 and March 2022, when bitcoin fell about 27% and 59%, respectively, within 90 days.
Moving averages are based on past prices, so they show how an asset has traded over a set period rather than where it will go next. A 365-day average responds more slowly to recent changes than a 200-day average.