Bitcoin’s bear markets are getting milder. Bull markets may be next
Bitcoin’s latest bear market was milder than past crashes as ETFs, institutional investors and a maturing market reshape its cycles.
The crypto asset fell roughly 55% from its October 2025 peak during its most recent bear cycle. That would qualify as a historic collapse in most markets, but for bitcoin, it was relatively tame compared to past collapses. In November 2021, for example, after reaching nearly $69,000, bitcoin plunged below $16,000 a year later as rising interest rates, a string of crypto bankruptcies and the collapse of FTX battered the market. The drop topped 75%. Earlier cycles produced drawdowns of 80% or more.
Past rebounds could be just as extreme. Bitcoin rose from less than $4,000 in early 2019 to almost $69,000 in 2021. It then climbed from its 2022 low to more than $100,000 after U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) opened the asset to a much larger pool of investors.
Those volatile boom-and-bust cycles helped define bitcoin, but both sides of the trade are becoming less dramatic — including the upside.
Jim Ferraioli, Schwab’s director for digital asset research, thinks there is an even simpler explanation for bitcoin’s shrinking swings.