Brazil’s right has already changed the balance of power
Bolsonaro’s party has strengthened its position in Congress, posing a formidable challenge to another Lula presidency.
In a televised presidential debate in Sao Paulo on October 18, Flavio Bolsonaro brought a number from Brazil’s prisons into an argument over crime. “Seventy-three percent”. The 45-year-old senator claimed that was the share of prisoners who had voted for his opponent, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80. The figure came from polling stations inside detention facilities, where staff and eligible detainees awaiting trial could cast ballots. Convicted prisoners serving final sentences could not vote. Lula paused. “I want 100 percent,” he replied. “Even your father.”
Jair Bolsonaro, the absent father, had spent 28 years in Congress, where he repeatedly praised the 1964 military coup that ushered in more than two decades of dictatorship. He went on to become president, lost re-election to Lula in 2022 and was later convicted of plotting to overturn the result. He is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest. A week after Lula’s inauguration, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters invaded and vandalised the presidential palace, Congress and Supreme Court in Brasilia, claiming without evidence that the election had been stolen.
Back in the studio, Flavio was promising to “redemocratise” Brazil. He demanded respect for the 56 million Brazilians who had voted for him and said he would send Lula into retirement.
If re-elected, Lula would have to address those frustrations while dealing with a Congress reshaped by the October 4 legislative elections. In the 513-seat lower house, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) won 121 seats, up from 97. The PT-led bloc moved from 82 to 88, while the largest alliance of traditional centre-right parties lost 18 seats. The sharpest rearrangement had taken place within the right, leaving the parliamentary left’s numbers largely intact.