Clarity Act's odds of passing plunge as Republicans reject Democrats' counter-proposal
Prediction markets sharply marked down the crypto market structure bill’s near-term prospects as negotiations remained stuck hours before a key Senate vote.
The Clarity Act’s chances of clearing a key Senate hurdle faded Tuesday as Republicans rejected a counteroffer from Democrats, leaving the two sides far apart just hours before a pivotal procedural vote.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), one of the bill’s leading Republican negotiators, said the Democratic proposal offered little movement from positions lawmakers held before the August recess.
“Senate Democrats’ counter offer looks identical to their opening position at the start of recess,” Lummis said in a statement shared with CoinDesk. “Republicans have moved substantially on every front, including agreeing to nearly all of the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework, while Democrats have not budged an inch.”
The pullback is also showing up on Kalshi, where traders are increasingly pushing any breakthrough further into the future. The contract for a crypto market structure bill becoming law before Oct. 1, 2027, fell to 36% Tuesday, down from around 53% Monday morning.