Ethiopia’s new rebel alliance faces an old problem
Former enemies have united against Abiy Ahmed, but disputes over territory, power and command could pull them apart.
The formation of a new armed alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed follows a pattern that has plagued Ethiopia – an empire of many nations and nationalities still in the making – for decades. Those in power leave little space for peaceful political struggle; the winner takes it all, so those who feel disadvantaged take up arms to change the status quo. Actors and alliances change over time, but violence remains the only constant.
The civil war in parts of Oromia has raged since Abiy took power in 2018, while the conflict in the Amhara region has raged since 2023. In Tigray, the Pretoria agreement was never fully implemented. Although large-scale war had not resumed, the region had been under siege since a faction of the TPLF took power and escalated its confrontation with the federal government. Until the latest escalation, Abiy’s government had largely been content to control the centre of power while confronting rebels with drones and ground forces.
The government held national elections despite voting not taking place in Tigray and several other districts. It formed the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission in 2021, which concluded a national conference of about 4,000 participants in August, despite the absence of armed groups and other key opposition organisations. At the same time, the government has continued to pursue major development projects. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was in Djibouti on September 24 for the launch of the Ethiopia-Djibouti petroleum infrastructure project. The newly elected parliament is due to open on October 5, when a new federal government will be constituted.
Both Fano and the TPLF claim western Tigray, or what the Amhara call Wolgait-Tsegede. The founding statement offers no settlement. A Tigrayan leadership that abandons its claim risks alienating people displaced from their homes; a Fano leadership that concedes it risks losing the support of fighters for whom the territory is central. Calling the issue a matter for later negotiations buys time but does not create a compromise. The same problem reaches beyond the north: Oromo, Amhara and Somali movements do not share one vision of Ethiopia’s federal order, boundaries or distribution of power.