Europe’s far right: Putin’s best friend?
Its gains threaten to deepen Europe’s divisions over Ukraine and Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had a good week. It kicked off with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, an opportunity to rub shoulders with international heavyweights such as Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi. Then, on Saturday, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff turned up in Moscow, signalling their boss – United States President Donald Trump’s – continued resolve to cut a deal on Ukraine with Putin.
But it was news from Europe that possibly brought the greatest joy to the Kremlin. Alternative for Germany (AfD)’s resounding success in the Saxony-Anhalt election brought the prospect of a Russia-friendly party running a regional government in a core European Union member state. For someone like Putin, who has a special relationship with Germany courtesy of his years as a KGB officer in Dresden, this surely feels satisfying.
AfD could see itself winning power at the federal level the next time voters head to the polls in 2029. Currently, the far-right party is on a roll, buoyed by dissatisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz and its promises to clamp down on immigration, curtail LGBTQ rights, and roll back the transition to renewable energy. Its appeal is particularly strong in former East Germany, having already come first in the 2024 provincial elections in Thuringia.
A nationalist and Eurosceptic in the Elysee would no doubt complicate Europe’s pursuit of a more unified foreign policy in response to external challenges, with Russia at the top of the list. Unlike the AfD, Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) favours some military aid for Ukraine, though not at the current scale. However, they call for negotiations and lambast the EU for what they describe as a misguided effort to defeat Russia. With Le Pen in charge, EU enlargement, whether to the Western Balkans, Ukraine or Moldova, would be put in the freezer. Admitting new members has already been made tough by the French constitution requiring a supermajority in the two chambers of the legislature or a national referendum. If Europe gives aspiring countries the cold shoulder, Russia will win, by default rather than design.