Global food security is under threat
Attacks on grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine may drive up food prices, hitting import-dependent countries hardest.
Attacks on commercial vessels appear to have become an established tactic in ongoing wars. In the Gulf region, they are part of the continuing war of attrition between the United States and Iran. In the Black Sea, they have become an increasingly prominent feature of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Most of the vessels being targeted are not military ships but commercial ones carrying oil, gas and petroleum products, or food commodities such as wheat and corn. All are essential either to the functioning of the economy or to human survival.
In October, commercial shipping in the Black Sea witnessed a sharp escalation, with a series of drone attacks targeting at least nine vessels off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO members. This is a dangerous development through which Moscow is testing the alliance’s cohesion. Several NATO members have already complained of Russian incursions into their territory, raising questions about whether Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides for collective defence, could be invoked.
Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and the Danube River. With most Ukrainian ports disrupted, Kyiv has turned to alternative routes to export its grain to markets in Africa and the Middle East. These fall into three main categories:
This marked a significant shift in the economic war, as Ukrainian strikes had previously focused more heavily on Russian energy installations and military facilities. Ukrainian attacks disrupted main Russian grain export terminals on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, forcing Moscow to divert some of its exports to Baltic Sea ports. The Sea of Azov had previously handled nearly a quarter of Russia’s wheat exports.