Keeping the world safe when no one is in charge
As AI creates new threats and power becomes fragmented, international cooperation is more vital than ever.
International politics today feels like a collective sleepwalk into the abyss. Three trends are particularly alarming. Artificial intelligence is globalising and turbocharging old and new threats. Meanwhile, no state is strong enough to impose order. And, as in earlier periods of global crisis, geopolitical blocs are hardening, with international cooperation increasingly portrayed as weakness. Alas, there is ample reason to fear a repetition of the worst of history.
Much attention has focused on the risk of war between the US and China, as shifts in hegemonic power historically produce conflict. That is not, however, what is happening. Instead, we are approaching an international order with no hegemon, with several states and regional blocs competing for influence. Using the jargon of international relations theory, we are on the cusp of genuine global multipolarity.
Artificial intelligence is adding further stress to existing power structures. On the one hand, we are all being transformed into godlike figures — soon no innovation or information is beyond our reach. But it is also disempowering everyone, creating new threats and making old ones harder to contain.
Military strength will remain necessary. But the only way to ensure real security in this new paradigm of multipolarity and artificial intelligence is through powerful international institutions and laws. Global standards must be developed and enforced. International organisations must be allowed to monitor, inspect and report on activities within countries’ borders. Governments will regularly have to share sensitive information. Peace through cooperation must be the new global slogan; not out of altruism but because it is the only way to achieve real security.