The data proves it: Bitcoin doesn't care about rising bond yields over long-term
Long-term, BTC ignores rising bond yields. In the short term, however, surging bond volatility could easily dampen crypto's animal spirits.
Yields snapped back into focus Wednesday. The U.S. 10-year jumped 15 basis points to its highest level since 2007, topping 5.13%, and pulled yields higher across the globe, as the feature image shows.
The standard interpretation is that as yields climb, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold rises, potentially pulling money toward bonds instead. In short, it’s a headwind, not a tailwind, for crypto.
The 90-day correlation between bitcoin's daily returns and the U.S. 10-year yield's daily moves is just −0.18, according to data analyzed by CoinDesk. That's close to zero and almost indistinguishable from no relationship at all.
The MOVE Index, which tracks expected turbulence in Treasury notes, surged 21% to 95 points on Wednesday, its highest level since April 1. That helps explain bitcoin's pullback from $87,200 to $83,500 on Wednesday, though the market may also have simply been looking for a reason to pull back after the recent steep run higher.