US midterms: Prediction markets favor Democrats in key crypto races
Kalshi and Polymarket price a 75% chance of a Democratic sweep, days after markets misjudged Brazil’s runoff.
Kalshi and Polymarket price a 75% chance of a Democratic sweep, days after markets misjudged Brazil’s runoff.
As Americans across the country head to the polls for the US midterm elections Tuesday, prediction market traders have spent months wagering on the outcome. According to an analysis by The Washington Post, nearly $1.9 billion in election-related contracts had traded on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Monday, marking record trading activity for a midterm election cycle.
Markets on both platforms favor Democrats winning control of Congress, with a Democratic sweep priced at 75% on Kalshi and 75.5% on Polymarket as of 4:30 p.m. UTC. Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 93% chance of taking the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate, while Polymarket priced those outcomes at 94.5% and 75.5%, respectively.
In Maine, however, a Democratic win predicted by traders could help the crypto industry expand its influence in Washington. Republican Senator Susan Collins was one of four Republicans who voted against advancing the CLARITY Act in September, stalling the bill in the Senate.